Progress and Ruin
Tharchin G. Lharampa Geshe
The Decline and Collapse of Societies and Civilisations in an Age Characterised by Advanced Technologies
This text is a collection of observations on the decline and collapse of societies and civilisations in an era characterised by advanced technologies. The aim is to ensure the safety and survival of humankind. It is essential to collaborate globally to identify and eliminate harmful elements and superfluous technologies, thereby promoting safety and stable well-being.The decline and collapse of a society or civilisation are almost always the result of a combination of internal factors (structural vulnerabilities) and external factors (sudden shocks). Historically, states have an average lifespan of around 200–340 years before facing serious crises or fragmentation. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5
However, we must consider that lifespans have changed, given that we now live in a fast-paced society where change occurs much more quickly than in the past.
Historians, social scientists and anthropologists divide the causes of social decline into five main broad categories
1. Political and Institutional FactorsLoss of legitimacy and corruption: When citizens lose trust in their leaders, institutions and the judicial system, the social fabric unravels.[1]
Hyper-complexity and bureaucracy: According to the theory put forward by the anthropologist Joseph Tainter, societies tackle problems by increasing their own complexity (by creating new laws, institutions and layers of bureaucracy). Over time, the benefits of this complexity diminish, whilst the costs of maintaining it become unsustainable, leading to the collapse of the system. [1, 2]
Wars and external invasions: Protracted military conflicts deplete economic and human resources, leaving borders vulnerable to invasions or forced mass migration. [1, 2, 3]
2. Economic and Social Factors
Extreme wealth inequality: The accumulation of resources in the hands of a few (oligarchy) impoverishes the majority of the population. This phenomenon generates resentment, economic instability and internal uprisings. [1, 2, 3, 4]
‘Elite overproduction’: A concept coined by the scientist Peter Turchin, this occurs when a society produces too many aspiring leaders, wealthy individuals or academics in relation to the positions of power actually available. This leads to fierce internal competition between political factions, which paralyses the state. [1, 2]
3. Environmental Factors and Resources
Climate change: Historically, periods of severe drought or sudden glaciations (as happened to the Maya civilisation or the Vikings in Greenland) have destroyed agricultural systems.
Overexploitation of resources (Overshoot): Soil degradation, deforestation, water pollution and the depletion of raw materials reduce the environment’s capacity to sustain the population. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
4. Cultural and Psychological Factors
Loss of a common purpose and cynicism: As theorised by Oswald Spengler, a society enters a terminal phase when it ceases to believe in its founding values. Widespread scepticism, a lack of interest in civic engagement and the prevalence of unbridled individualism replace social cooperation.
Dependence on comforts and apathy: Prolonged prosperity can lead to hedonistic adaptation, reducing collective psychological and physical resilience in the face of sacrifices or sudden crises. [1, 2]
5. Disease and Demography
Epidemics: Major historical outbreaks (such as the Black Death or the Plague of Justinian) have decimated the workforce, disrupted trade and caused the immediate collapse of essential services.
Demographic crisis: Both extreme overpopulation (Malthusian pressure on available resources) and a collapse in birth rates can disrupt a nation’s productive and military balance. [1, 2, 3, 4]
Compared with the past, we have moved from isolated and predictable threats towards systemic, interconnected and cascading risks. Rapid technological change, global interdependence and growing macroeconomic pressures have created entirely new vulnerabilities. [1, 2, 3]
The main current risk factors can be divided into five broad categories
1. Technological Risks and Disruptive AI· Software supply chain vulnerabilities: The widespread adoption of cloud services, SaaS solutions and third-party providers has expanded the attack surface. The malfunction or compromise of a single provider can paralyse thousands of systems in a cascade effect. [1]
· Disruption from Artificial Intelligence: According to the IIA’s Risk in Focus 2026/2027 report, AI-related digital disruption is the second fastest-rising global risk. It includes threats such as the proliferation of automated disinformation, deepfakes and the exploitation of AI for advanced cyber-attacks. [1, 2]
· Cybersecurity Resilience Gaps: Sophisticated ransomware, targeted phishing via social engineering and next-generation malware continue to be the predominant threat to data integrity. [1, 2]
2. Technical Obsolescence and Legacy Systems
· Technological debt and incompatibility: Many contemporary critical systems still rely on legacy infrastructure. The use of obsolete hardware and software not only increases maintenance costs, but also exposes organisations to security vulnerabilities that can no longer be patched and to sudden system crashes. [1, 2]
· Fragility of micro-components: The integration of ultra-sensitive microcircuits into almost every modern device has made hardware vulnerable to microscopic and invisible damage, capable of causing sudden operational disruptions during transport or ordinary use.
3. Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Risks
· Geoeconomic conflict: As highlighted in the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026, the fragmentation of multilateralism and the ‘weaponisation’ of trade (sanctions, export bans on key technologies, capital controls) pose a constant threat to the operational continuity of global systems.
· Technological nationalism: Rivalries between superpowers are redefining regulatory standards and restricting cross-border access to digital infrastructure and essential raw materials (such as semiconductors). [1, 2]
3. Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Risks
· Geoeconomic conflict: As highlighted in the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026, the fragmentation of multilateralism and the ‘weaponisation’ of trade (sanctions, export bans on key technologies, capital controls) pose a constant threat to the operational continuity of global systems.
· Technological nationalism: Rivalries between superpowers are redefining regulatory standards and restricting cross-border access to digital infrastructure and essential raw materials (such as semiconductors). [1, 2]
4. Cyberspace-Physical Interdependencies and Transient Chlorophyll
· Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS): The convergence of software and physical infrastructure (energy grids, water systems, Industry 4.0/5.0-style industrial IoT) means that a service disruption or cyber-attack can instantly result in structural or environmental damage in the real world.
· Impact of climate change: Static risk assessment models fail in the face of increasingly frequent extreme weather events that threaten data centres and physical network infrastructure. [1, 2, 3]
5. Operational Risks and the Human Factor
· Skills mismatch (reskilling gap): The speed at which systems evolve often outstrips the workforce’s ability to adapt and receive training, leading to configuration errors or operational vulnerabilities caused by the incorrect management of new technologies.
· Risks associated with remote/hybrid working: The permanent decentralisation of corporate endpoints has shifted the security perimeter beyond protected networks, increasing exposure to insecure public networks and device theft. [1, 2]
Conclusion
As Mahatma Gandhi also stated, the Earth provides enough to satisfy everyone’s needs, but not everyone’s greed. In today’s globalised world, collaboration is essential if all communities are to pursue a productive well-being that respects equality and promotes harmony and peace. In light of ongoing global conflicts and widespread youth protests, it is important to recognise the significance of this moment. The old adage that ‘the truth lies in the middle’ is particularly relevant in this context.
འཇིག་རྟེན་ཁམས་ཀུན་ཕན་བདེ་དང་རང་དབང་གིས་ཁྱབ་པར་སྨོན།
May all beings everywhere be happy and free.
Possano tutti gli esseri ovunque essere felici e liberi.
Lokah Samastah Sukhino Bhavantu
